Does anyone know the recession is coming?

Here is the story of me and my boss.

I work in a strange company that my boss suggests stopping facebook and Instagram sharing of your daily life. At first, It’s hard for me as I used to share my life in social media. However, the more time I work for him, the more I know for his rigorous control.

Anyway, working for him is lovely.

‘Knock-Knock’

‘Come in’

I come to office at 9am but my boss will always be earlier than me.

‘Please tell me you instincts, will you believe the recession is coming?’

‘Pardon me?’ He always asks unusual questions, but he not always ask them in the early of the morning.

‘Tell me, who will be the last one to realise the recession?’

‘It must be the working class, like me.’

He let out a belly-laugh.

‘Why rich people don’t let them know when recession is coming? They have families as well.’ I want to express my feeling about rich always forgets the poor.

‘You should ask, why government doesn’t want to let them know.’

Sometimes he ask me powerful questions that makes me blank.

‘Recession, when you see it, it will be too late. We should say ‘thank you’ to the poor because they always pay the costs for our society.’

Yes, it’s sad but sure.

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Hyperloop VS High-speed rail

While China is developing her High-speed rail which China’s government claims that it is the world’s longest high speed railway network, the World especially US is working on the project called Hyperloop.

China High-speed rail trains can almost run at speed from 250 km/hr to 350 km/hr. Compared to the Hyperloop concept, High-speed rail trains may not be fast enough. A Hyperloop is a proposed concept of passenger transportation and conceive may carry passengers along the 560 km route at a speed of 1200 km/hr. The idea is that a pod can travel free of air resistance in a sealed tube at high speed efficiently. Even though some experts are skeptical and concerned about its cost and safety, some US companies such as Boeing, Tesla and SpaceX are still planning to think beyond the boundary. Maybe it is still a concept now, however, 10 years later or 20 years laters, we may thank these companies for this amazing idea.

We all know that China’s government right now initiates One Belt One Road development strategy which involving infrastructure investment, construction, railway, highway, automobile and real estate among Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa. There’s no doubt that the One Belt One Road project will help China to extend its affections around the world which triggered the US. The US must do something to balance the influence of China. Promoting Hyperloop project will be the way to go.

What does it means when housing prices go down in Hong Kong

Given that the US federal Reserve increased interest rate by 0.25%, the escalated China-US trade war tension and the upcoming vacancy tax in Hong Kong, the world’s most expensive property market prices drop about 2.5-5% which compared to last few months.

Together with major Hong Kong banks raising their prime lending rate for the first time for decade, the property bullish market in Hong Kong has come to the end. People in Hong Kong are witnessing the economy is going down in 2018. The purchasing power from mainlanders are weaken due to the RMB devaluation. The HS index has already dropped from the top by nearly 5000 points. Hong Kong economy growth depends on Chinese economy and Hong Kong lacks economic characteristic after hand-over. Hong Kong does not have any developments on special or significant areas as such AI platform, IT or creative technology industries. Hong Kong economy growth is mainly leading by banking and housing markets. Most of the economy analysts believe that the bullish stock markets and housing markets in Hong Kong are benefited by the hot money from China.

When the Hong Kong economy is going down, industrial productions will drop, retail sales will drop, consumer confidence will drop, new jobs will drop and finally housing price will drop. House price will always be the last thing to drop. Once it begins to drop, the correction will be 5-10 years because property is not a liquid asset. If there is a recession in Hong Kong, no one can get a mortgage from bank and you cannot sell at good price.

Waiting for the rebound of silver!

Recently, I received couples of inquiries about buying precious metals. If you follow the news about gold and silver, you will find that gold spot price is at 1-year low (about USD 1200) and silver is at 2-year low (about USD 14.2). There’s no doubt that the spot prices right now are very attractive for aggressive investors.

I would like to focus on silver spot price at the post. The silver has been fluctuating within 14.3-14.2 for nearly two weeks. And the cost for silver mining will be about USD13/ozt which means the spot price really get close to the mining cost. Together with the rumour about US mint, I believe the silver spot price has reached the bottom. The rumour is about American silver eagle coins has been sold out and there will be a halt on new batches of silver eagle coins. I don’t know where the news come from and the accuracy of this news. However, some billions dealers have told me that silver eagle coins has been sold out and they cannot provide time schedules about when will be back in stock.

The bottom of the silver price will be USD13.9-14.2. And I truly believe and truly want that it will rebound to USD16/17. Don’t ask me when will the rebound happen. I don’t know either! It may take 1-year time. However, it worths the wait.

From Bullish to Bearish in Hong Kong Stock Market

US-China trade war, turmoil of emerging markets, devaluation of RMB and China slowing economy push Hong Kong stock market from bullish to bearish. Hang Seng Index ended at 26,422.55 yesterday which was 20% lower than the peak of January in this year.

After the dead cat bounce during the past 2 weeks, there is a steep decline in Hong Kong stock market and I believe that the bottom hasn’t be reached. While lots of Hong Kong investors saying “Be greedy when others are fearful” and going to buy stocks in lower prices, I am considering “Be fearful when others are greedy”. There are a couple of reasons to believe that the stock prices are not cheap enough. Firstly, the US-China trade war tension hasn’t been released. Each time Trump threatens new traffics on Chinese goods, both mainland and Hong Kong stock markets tumble. And two sides are not expected to come to a solid agreement or compromise in a short period of time. Secondly, nervous investors are yanking money out of the emerging markets. As China is considered to be the world biggest emerging markets, hot money is fleeing China now. Together with the China slowing economy and RMB devaluation, China is no longer attractive for foreign investors. Thirdly, Hong Kong is going to follow the US Federal Reserve to rise interest rates in September which will make investors consider more to borrow cash and buy stocks. Besides, Alibaba co-founder and chief Jack Ma is going to retire from the Chinese e-commerce giant. Is it another factor implies that there will be a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China economy this year?

Do you see any attractive factors excluding lower prices to buy stocks in HSI? Technically, I will see resistance at 26,000 area and then 25,600 for a possible bottoming signal in September.

Silver spot price gets lower and lower. Do you dare to buy?

Silver spot price drops to one-year low at nearly 14.22. It seems nobody know the reason of the slump. Some say that it’s because the capital flows into the USD. Some say that it’s because the slowing international trade will diminish the demand of silver. And some even say that the silver spot price is manipulated by some group of investors. No matter what reasons, if you’ve already bought some, hold them and believe someday, maybe a year later, you will earn big money with them. If you haven’t bought any silver, think twice before doing it.

A boom-and-bust cycle is going to happen in HK property market.

Hong Kong’s property values keep rising during the past decade. However, with the Chinese economy slowing down and the US dollar being stronger again, a booming Hong Kong property market is at risk.

A number of big banks in Hong Kong, including HSBC have lift rates on new mortgages in last week and it will cause a correction and discounting for housing market in 2019. Hong Kong has the classic symptoms, such as an overvalued housing market and high debt, which have caused many past financial crises. These symptoms will leave this city become vulnerable to an Fed hiking cycle.

The Hong Kong housing market looks massively overvalued and the property market sentiment is going to turn negative. Coming with the slowdown of the Chinese capital being channeled into residential market, investors are being more alert to signs of sliding in Hong Kong property market.